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Key figures in the Revised National Budget 2020

To ensure simultaneous access to market-sensitive information the Ministry of Finance publishes selected key figures prior to the budget launch at 10:45. More detailed estimates will be published together with the Revised National Budget.

The coronavirus outbreak has resulted in a severe contraction of the Norwegian and global economy. In the Revised National Budget for 2020 mainland GDP is projected to fall by 4.0 percent this year. Uncertainty is unusually high.

Due to the high number of lay-offs, registered unemployment has climbed to levels not seen in 75 years. Unemployment is forecast to rise from 2.2 percent in 2019 to 5.9 percent this year.

The restrictions imposed to curtail the coronavirus outbreak are being gradually lifted, leading several business to reopen. This has contributed to a fall in the number of registered unemployed in recent weeks. In the first week of May, the number of fully unemployed fell by 23 000. Of these, 19 000 were furloughed. During the same period, the number of partially unemployed went up. In total, the number of fully or partially unemployed fell by 12 000 during the first week of May.

The fiscal impulse for 2020 is now estimated at 5.1 percent. This is significantly higher than when the budget was presented last autumn (-0.2 percent). To counter the economic fallout of the virus outbreak the Government has introduced sweeping measures in successive rounds.

The government proposes a Revised Budget for 2020 in which spending of petroleum revenue amounts to 419.6 billion NOK, measured by the size of the structural, non-oil fiscal deficit. This accounts for 4.2 per cent of the estimated value of the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.

Table: Selected key figures in the Revised National Budget 20201

 

2019

2020

Real gross domestic product (mainland Norway)

2.3

-4.0

Employment, persons

1.7

-1.0

Unemployment rate, LFS (level)

3.7

5.1

Unemployment rate, registered (level)2

2.2

5.9

Non-oil fiscal deficit, bill. NOK

227.6

479.6

Structural non-oil budget deficit, bill. NOK

245.2

419.6

Fiscal impulse3

0.4

5.1

Spending of petroleum revenue4

3.0

4.2

¹ Change from previous year in percent, unless otherwise noted.

2 Measured as share of the labour force in AKU.

3 Structural, non-oil budget deficit in percent of mainland trend-GDP. Change from previous year in percentage point.

4 Structural, non-oil budget deficit in percent of the capital in The Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway.